Crude Oil : WTI, AAX and PCHEM
Morning…
It has been a while again since I last blogged. Funny how something as simple as sitting down to write can feel so difficult. The truth is, it is VERY hard to get my butt onto the chair and start blogging — mainly because the motivation just is not there.
Perhaps it is not about lacking ideas but lacking the drive to put thoughts into words. And when motivation fades, procrastination quietly takes over. Still, maybe the hardest part is simply starting. Once the fingers begin to move, the words may follow...
This morning, I was checking on WTI crude and noticed that prices are moving back toward a key support zone. The USD95 area will be worth watching closely for a possible rebound.
At the same time, with Trump suggesting that negotiations with Iran are nearing completion, this could add further pressure on crude oil prices as traders begin pricing in easing geopolitical tensions.
Meanwhile, US markets are in celebration mode, reacting positively to the latest developments.
Recent reports indicate that optimism surrounding US–Iran negotiations has indeed weighed on oil prices and lifted market sentiment.
Since I am trading both PCHEM and AAX, which are highly sensitive to oil price movements, monitoring WTI and Brent charts has become part of my routine. Understanding where crude oil may be heading helps me navigate these trades with greater awareness.
Based on the above chart :
1. Primary trend still UP — but momentum weakening
- The rising trendline (blue line) from March is still intact.
- Price has been respecting higher lows.
- However, the series of circled peaks suggests repeated failure near USD108–118 resistance.
This tells me:
Trend = bullish structure
Momentum = losing steam
2. USD95–96 is now the key battlefield
The horizontal line around 95-95 is important.
Why?
- Previous congestion/support zone
- Near the rising trendline
- Psychological round number
So, this area becomes:
Support test zone = USD95–96
Major Damage Already Done
The elephant in the room is the massive gap-down collapse that took place in early 2026. Such a sharp breakdown rarely goes unnoticed, and the technical damage left behind should not be underestimated.
What does this tell us?
First, market sentiment shifted abruptly. Confidence that once supported the stock weakened almost overnight, triggering aggressive selling pressure.
Second, strong overhead supply now exists. Investors who bought at higher levels and were caught in the collapse may be waiting for any rebound as an opportunity to exit their positions. This creates resistance and makes recovery more challenging.
As a result, AAX is no longer behaving like a strong trending stock. Instead, it has become more of a recovery and rebuilding story — one that still needs time and proof before confidence can fully return.
This looks like a symmetrical triangle / compression pattern.
What it means:
- Buyers are stepping up at higher lows (ascending support)
- Sellers are capping rallies with lower highs (descending resistance)
- Price is being squeezed into a decision point
Usually, this type of setup signals that a larger move may be approaching.
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